LOL World Championship Odds: Which Teams Are Favored to Win This Year?

As an esports analyst who’s been tracking competitive League of Legends for nearly a decade, I’ve learned that predicting Worlds outcomes is a lot like trying to follow the plot of a game like Borderlands 4—sometimes the narrative takes a sharp, unexpected turn that leaves you wondering why the obvious path was abandoned. In Borderlands 4, your Vault Hunter gets sidetracked from their original goal by an external threat, only for that threat to be almost immediately neutralized. Yet, the character still veers off course, committing to a rebellion they barely know. Similarly, at the League of Legends World Championship, teams often enter with one clear storyline—domestic dominance, a star player’s revenge arc, or a perfect meta read—only for the tournament’s chaotic nature to rewrite the script entirely. So when we look at this year’s favorites, it’s not just about raw power or past accolades; it’s about which squads can stay focused on the Summoner’s Cup and not get distracted by the “Timekeepers” of patch changes, stage pressure, or early upsets.

Let’s start with the obvious frontrunners. Based on regional performance and roster strength, the LPL’s JD Gaming and the LCK’s T1 are sitting at the top of most odds boards, with betting platforms giving them roughly 22% and 18% implied probability, respectively. JDG, in particular, looks unstoppable on paper—they’ve got a stacked lineup, including mid-laner knight and ADC ruler, and they bulldozed through the LPL summer split with a 15-3 record. But here’s where the Borderlands analogy hits home: just because a team looks invincible doesn’t mean they’ll stick to the mission. I’ve seen JDG in previous years get knocked out by weird pocket picks or overcommit to shutting down one threat while ignoring another. It’s like having that robot companion block the implant signal—the immediate danger is gone, but you’re still running around chasing side quests. If JDG can maintain their disciplined macro and flexible draft approach, they’re my pick to win it all. But if they lose focus, even for a series, they could become this year’s biggest disappointment.

Then there’s T1, the eternal favorites with Faker at the helm. Their odds have fluctuated a ton this season—partly due to Faker’s wrist injury mid-summer—but they’ve rallied hard, and the narrative around them feels stronger than ever. Betting markets currently price them around +450, which translates to about an 18% chance. Personally, I love T1’s story: the veteran leader, the young prodigies like Zeus and Gumayusi, and that undeniable clutch factor in best-of-fives. But I’ve also watched them throw leads in finals because they tunnel too hard on one style. Remember 2022 Worlds? They were the heavy favorites but fell to DRX in a stunning reverse sweep. It’s that Borderlands problem again: you start out hunting the Vault, but then you’re suddenly assembling a resistance without asking why. T1’s early game is usually crisp, but if they don’t adapt mid-series, they might find themselves stuck in a narrative they didn’t choose.

Moving to the dark horses, I’ve got my eye on Gen.G from the LCK and the LPL’s Bilibili Gaming. Gen.G’s odds sit around 12%, which feels a little low given how dominant they were in the LCK summer. They play a controlled, scaling style that works beautifully in a meta focused on objective control, but—and this is a big but—they sometimes lack the flexibility to pivot when things go sideways. It reminds me of that moment in Borderlands 4 where the main character could’ve just removed the implant and moved on, but instead, they commit to this grand rebellion. Gen.G tends to overinvest in standard compositions, and at an international event like Worlds, where cheese picks and off-meta strategies run wild, that rigidity could cost them. On the flip side, Bilibili Gaming has that underdog energy I adore. They’re sitting at roughly 8% odds, but with players like Yagao in the mid lane, they’ve got the potential to upset anyone. I’ve followed Yagao for years, and when he’s on, he’s a monster. Still, BLG’s inconsistency makes them a risky bet—they’re the kind of team that might take down JDG in a semifinal only to draft poorly in the finals.

Now, let’s talk about the Western hope—G2 Esports from the LEC. Their odds are long, maybe 5% or so, but honestly, I’d put them even lower. Don’t get me wrong, I love G2’s chaotic style and Caps’ mechanical genius, but they’ve struggled against Eastern teams in recent years. Watching them play is like seeing the Vault Hunter listen to Claptrap without questioning it—they’ll make these bold, flashy plays that look amazing when they work, but when they don’t, it’s a disaster. Last year, they barely made it out of groups, and this season, their macro has been spotty. If the meta shifts toward early skirmishing, they could surprise us, but I just don’t see them lifting the trophy. For fans putting money on them, it’s more about faith than logic.

Of course, odds don’t tell the whole story. In my experience, Worlds is decided by factors that spreadsheets can’t capture: player morale, patch adaptation, and even things like travel fatigue. Take the 2021 EDG win—they weren’t the outright favorites, but they peaked at the right time and handled pressure better than anyone. That’s the real lesson here. Just like in Borderlands 4, where the protagonist’s initial motivation (revenge, freedom) gets overshadowed by a new allegiance, teams at Worlds often find their paths altered by unexpected challenges. A star player might underperform, a new champion might break the meta, or a underrated squad like Vietnam’s GAM Esports could pull off a miracle upset. I’ve seen it happen—back in 2019, FPX came out of nowhere to win it all, and their odds were sitting at around 10% before the tournament.

So, who would I bet on? If I were putting my own money down, I’d go with JD Gaming. They’ve got the talent, the cohesion, and the strategic depth to avoid the side quests and stay on target. But I’d also keep a close watch on T1—because when Faker is on stage, anything can happen. Ultimately, analyzing Worlds odds is part math, part storytelling. We look at the data, we consider the narratives, but in the end, the rift has a way of throwing curveballs. Just remember: the team that wins isn’t always the one with the best stats, but the one that remembers the Vault is the real prize.